The hottest fuel oil in Shanghai may continue its

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Shanghai fuel oil may continue the trend of stagflation

from late March, boosted by the rise of crude oil, Shanghai fuel oil also stopped falling and stabilized, shaking around 3100 yuan/ton. However, the trend is relatively weaker than that of crude oil, showing a stagflation trend

weak basic. If you have a friend who is engaged in relevant industries, please inform us that face-to-face is the main reason for the stagnation of fuel oil trend

internationally, Singapore's spot demand for fuel oil remained depressed in March, while the East West arbitrage window opened in March, the market supply increased, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory remained at a high level. As of the week of April 1, the inventory of fuel oil depots in Singapore was 20.98 million barrels, an increase of 17.64% over the beginning of March. In late March, the expectation of a rebound in crude oil prices led Southeast Asian countries to buy fuel oil, and the demand for ship supply market stock increased. Asian fuel oil market fundamentals show signs of gradually strengthening, and it is expected to improve in the future

domestically, due to the price hike of gasoline and diesel at the end of March, the average monthly transaction price of spot in Huangpu market in March was yuan/ton, up about 100 yuan/ton from February. However, the sluggish demand has not been improved, and the market is in a situation of infinite value. The inventory consumption of ports is limited. As of March 27, 2009, the total inventory of fuel oil in China's coastal areas (South China, Shandong and East China) was 2.073 million tons, an increase of 24% month on month, of which the commercial inventory of primary fuel oil in South China once reached the highest level of 800000 tons in the past two years

the fuel oil inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange also continued to increase. As of the week of April 3, the inventory increased by 32.25% to 328352 tons compared with the beginning of March, and the inventory futures increased by 30% to 216000 tons. At present, the power generation of South China oil fired power plant in March has increased compared with the previous two months, and the warmer weather in the second quarter may further drive the demand for fuel oil. However, the high inventory is expected to be difficult to digest in the short term

when crude oil stopped falling and stabilized in March, the total position of fuel oil in Shanghai also began to increase continuously, with an increase of 45.8% to 240000 hands at the end of March compared with the beginning of the month. The change of price difference highlights the strong driving role of funds. Suppressed by high inventories, the increase in the spot price of fuel oil is limited. The spot to futures premium has changed from the previous premium to the discount at the end of March. At present, the price difference has expanded to about 200 yuan/ton

at the same time, the positive price difference of Shanghai fuel oil has also gradually expanded, and there is limited room for the rise of recent month contracts, while the rise of far month contracts is significantly driven by funds. The price difference between May and July has expanded to above 150 yuan/ton, which is higher than the position cost, and there is an arbitrage opportunity. It is expected that with the entry of arbitrage, the price difference between the two will gradually narrow

the main positions of Shanghai fuel oil all appeared in early April. 1. The requirements of hydraulic universal testing machine for fixture materials: reduce holdings, and the main air force is stronger than the main force. Hedging positions in short positions remained stable, and Zhejiang Dayue, which has been dominated by speculation, topped the short list

next, we believe that the trend of Shanghai fuel oil will continue the previous stagflation trend

on the one hand, the international crude oil price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the center of gravity may move upward. Driven by crude oil, Shanghai fuel oil may remain high and volatile, and the bottom area is expected to move up to 3000 yuan/ton

on the other hand, the fuel oil fundamentals are boosted by the international fuel market, and the seasonal impact may improve, but the high inventory is expected to be the main factor to suppress the futures price for a period of time. The answer of Shanghai and technical solutions is that there is limited upside space for fuel oil. At the same time, the market liquidity surplus is gradually emerging, and the driving effect of funds may be stronger next, making the price relatively resistant to decline, but the strength of short positions will suppress the futures price, which is expected to be a phased top of 3400 yuan/ton

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